What Would It Take for Dems to Retake the House?

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said on CNN yesterday morning that Democrats have a “very excellent chance” of taking back the House in November – pointing to Mitt Romney’s selection of running mate Paul Ryan as a “pivotal” moment in the campaign.

The Democrats need to pick up 25 seats to win back the majority.

Politico’s arena asked: “Does it seem likely that the Democrats could retake the House?  With a 10 percent congressional approval rating, are Americans even paying attention to House races?”

Here’s my take:

Pelosi’s dream of reclaiming the House could become Boehner’s nightmare. That’s not likely despite Mitt Romney’s fumbling campaign and various Republican candidates’ implosions on social issues, because voters tend to stick with the devils they know and vote for incumbents in the end. But it is possible that the Democrat’s could retake the House if:

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  • women vote in proportion to their anger over assaults on their economic and reproductive rights and health,
  • progressive women go to the polls in proportions that match their 1992 “Year of the Woman” turnout,
  • attempts to suppress minority and women voters do not succeed,
  • Obama’s coattails are strong enough to reel in a few additional House seats for his party.

Those are big if’s. I predict Democrats have a better chance of winning a few additional seats in the Senate than taking over the House.

Thoughts? What are you seeing in the House districts where you live?

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