Indies leaning toward Obama or Romney?

It’s way too soon to tell which way independent voters will swing. But net out the contributing factors and it’s clear the results depend on many volatile factors. That chaos gives advocacy groups tremendous opportunity to influence the outcome. What’s your prediction?

Politico Arena Asks:

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll finds a dead heat in the presidential race six months before the election. Mitt Romney edges out President Obama 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters. And the president’s job approval rating stands at 48 percent, down five points from February and a number now equal to the amount of people who disapprove of Obama’s performance.

Six months out from the election, do these numbers suggest Romney can exploit the president’s perceived weaknesses? Or do the poll results offer reasons for optimism to the Obama campaign?

My Response:

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Gay Advisor’s Departure from Romney Campaign: Homophobia or Just More Hypocrisy?

Regardless of which label one chooses for Richard Grenell’s departure from the Romney campaign ranks, the result is the same. And can anyone tell me why in the world a self-respecting gay person or a woman would ever support the Republican candidate in the first place?

Politico Arena Asks:

Mitt Romney’s foreign policy spokesman Richard Grenell announced he was resigning from the campaign this week. Grenell, (an occasional Arena contributor), was the first openly gay spokesman for the Romney campaign.

However, Grenell’s hiring became a source of tension for the campaign after conservatives expressed concern over Grenell’s sexual orientation as well as his endorsement of same sex marriage. Grenell’s voice was also absent during a week of key foreign policy news – the anniversary of Osama bin Ladin’s death.

Does Grenell’s exit reflect poorly on the Romney campaign? And does it indicate that openly gay individuals still have a hard time climbing the ladder in politics?

My Response:

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Should Romney Be Running Scared into FL Primary?

Newt won it in SC after a dismal performance in NH. What do you think will be the next exciting episode in the Republican primary soap opera? And is Romney toast or has he just taken a temporary step back?

ARENA ASKED: Newt Gingrich has won the South Carolina primary, the Associated Press
projected Saturday night. Should Mitt Romney be running scared after his second-place finish? Or
will the Jan. 31 Florida primary prove a firewall?

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MY ANSWER: Groundhog Day came early in South Carolina. Newt Gingrich’s candidacy popped its head up from what seemed to be a deep hole into which he had dug himself with his philandering and arrogance.

Gingrich’s victory in the South Carolina primary shows that for all their anti-gay, anti-women’s rights, pro so-called

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Is Mitt Romney unstoppable?

Keep those gloves on, Mitt.

Mitt RomneyArena Asks:Mitt Romney has won the New Hampshire primary, the Associated Press projected as polls closed Tuesday night.

How much closer does this bring Romney to being the Republican nominee? Can any of his rivals realistically stop him in South Carolina, Florida or beyond? And which of them is the most likely to drop out?

My Answer: Romney won by barely the numbers he had to get to look like a real winner in his almost-home state. But he did what he needed to do and barring a self-immolating mistake will stay just enough ahead of the pack to become the Republican nominee…

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Would Santorum’s Surge Part Iowa Waters but Sink Him in General Election?

Hooray, just one more day till the Iowa Caucuses will be over. Then we can immediately start obsessing about New Hampshire. Meanwhile, what do you think about Rick Santorum’s chances for a strong finish tomorrow night?

2012 VoteArena Asks: On the last full day of campaigning before Iowa’s GOP caucuses, Mitt Romney is working to hold on to his narrow advantage as he faces a surging Rick Santorum. A Des Moines Register poll released Saturday showed Romney and Ron Paul locked in a close race, with Santorum rising swiftly to challenge them.

Will Santorum’s surge last? How much of a threat does the former Pennsylvania senator pose to Romney’s lead?

My Answer: Elections are like rivers–never the same twice. Every election is a unique moment in time. And Iowa’s political waters are parting for Rick Santorum at the crucial moment, just before the caucus votes, leading some to anoint him the next Moses they hope can lead the party to victory next November…

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Is Newt inoculated against past deeds and late breaking flip flop?

Not that I had time for it today, but I couldn’t resist answering this one. What’s your take? Why isn’t Newt getting the criticism he deserves for his past deeds? Will they eventually come back to haunt him? Or will he on his own make so many missteps that he destroys his own candidacy?

Ethics SignArena Asks: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is threatening to discuss what she learned about Newt Gingrich from a 1990s ethics investigation. Pelosi, like Gingrich a former House speaker, hinted that she would one day discuss the “thousand pages of his stuff” that she rifled through in the late 1990s while serving on a panel that was investigating him for tax and ethics violations.

But would that really hurt presidential candidate Gingrich, considering the information has largely been aired publicly before? Is Gingrich politically inoculated on these and other old controversies, including the circumstances of his first divorce?

My Answer: Newt may be on the road to discrediting himself without needing Pelosi’s help…

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Sex Scandals Sink Cain: Is That Just?

Shoot, I lost my bet. I thought Herman Cain would stay in the race no matter what came down. But there could be no noble outcome in this story, whichever way it went. Anybody want to bet on when the divorce papers are served?

Herman Cain (Scott Olson - Getty Images)Arena Asks: Herman Cain will suspend his presidential campaign, the former Godfather’s Pizza CEO announced Saturday.

Does Cain’ characterization of himself as a victim of unfair media coverage ring true? Will he be influential as the Republican presidential races unfolds?

My Answer: There isn’t much justice here.

Cain had no business running for president in the first place. The level of attention and support he received was never justified by his qualifications for the role…

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Can Herman Cain Survive?

You knew it was just a matter of minutes before a sex scandal would erupt with one or another presidential candidate. Personally, I was betting it would be Michelle Bachmann and/or her husband. So much self-righteousness is usually a mask to hide some skeleton in the closet. But no, it was Pizza Dude Herman Cain. Though many of the first responders on Arena’s commentator bench say Cain is toast, I’m not so sure. Read on and tell me what you think…

Herman CainArena Asks: POLITICO reports exclusively that during Herman Cain’s tenure as the head of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s, at least two female employees complained to colleagues and senior association officials about inappropriate behavior by him. The women signed agreements with the restaurant group that gave them financial payouts to leave the association. How damaging are these revelations to Cain’s bid for the Republican presidential nomination?

My Answer: These allegations aren’t an automatic KO but they are big and they are damaging. How Cain comports himself in the aftermath will determine whether he remains a viable candidate or becomes cold pizza. So far, not so good.

This month is the 20th anniversary of Anita Hill’s allegations of sexual harassment by then U.S. Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas. A comparison to those events might shed light on what this might mean for Cain…

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POLITICO Arena: Bachmann’s victory

It’s hard to believe the next presidential election is still almost 16 months away. If you were Michelle Bachmann’s advisor, what strategy would you propose she take to sustain her momentum and end up as the Republican standard bearer? (Ouch, I have a headache…)

Politico TheArena logo

Arena Asks: Michele Bachmann was named the winner of the Iowa straw poll tonight, taking 4,823 votes out of nearly 17,000 cast. Ron Paul was a close runner-up, taking 4,671 votes. In a distant third place was former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who took 2,293 votes after investing heavily in the event. What does this victory say about Bachmann’s future in the presidential race? And is this the end of the line for Tim Pawlenty?

My Answer: Pawlenty’s third place was actually better than his numbers would have predicted going in, so he’s lived to fight at least one more day. Cain, Santorum, Huntsman, and Gingrich can go home now…

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