It’s way too soon to tell which way independent voters will swing. But net out the contributing factors and it’s clear the results depend on many volatile factors. That chaos gives advocacy groups tremendous opportunity to influence the outcome. What’s your prediction?
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll finds a dead heat in the presidential race six months before the election. Mitt Romney edges out President Obama 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters. And the president’s job approval rating stands at 48 percent, down five points from February and a number now equal to the amount of people who disapprove of Obama’s performance.
Six months out from the election, do these numbers suggest Romney can exploit the president’s perceived weaknesses? Or do the poll results offer reasons for optimism to the Obama campaign?
The economy is trending upward. Advantage Obama.
The economy is trending upward slowly. Advantage Romney
Republicans are waging war on women, angering independent women who are key swing voters. Advantage Obama
Democrats fail to deliver economic and reproductive justice yet take women voters for granted. Advantage Romney.
Killed Bin Laden. Advantage Obama.
Job numbers have not risen fully from the dead. Advantage Romney.
Likeability. Advantage Obama
Citizens United. Advantage Romney.
Net net: independents continue to be key to the election. But the vote could swing either way depending on myriad factors. Ask this question November 1 and get a more meaningful answer.